Did Mongolia have herd immunity on the eve of the outbreak? Evidently not, but how could one have known? The outbreak occurred despite Mongolia maintaining exemplary high rates of immunization. Then, in 2015, a massive outbreak occurred which, over a span of 16 months, affected more that 50,000 individuals-mostly vulnerable children below the age of vaccination. Between 20, not a single case of measles was recorded in that nation, largely as a result of very high vaccinations rates. Have they achieved herd immunity? Strictly-speaking, they have not.Īnother striking example of recent history is the case of Mongolia. If personal immunity to the virus wanes after a few months, it is at least conceivable that the population will always be subject to either outbreaks or waves of infection.Īs a case in point, many places that were hit hard in the initial course of the pandemic now see a resurgence of cases-albeit so far with less morbidity and much less lethality than the initial wave.
What is a stable or tolerable rate of infection for me may not be so for you.Īlso, there is no guarantee that herd immunity can or will be achieved. While that definition is adequate, and while herd immunity may indeed be a real phenomenon that can take place under certain circumstances when populations are subjected to a contagious disease, it is important to recognize that herd immunity is not a concept that has any practical value for setting public health policy.įor one thing, there is no objective way to establish that herd immunity has been achieved since a “stable” rate of new infection is a subjective notion. The authors state that the aim of the COVID response should be to achieve herd immunity which they define as “the point at which the rate of new infections is stable.” Policy ideas are ideas that are ultimately imposed. It offers general ideas about what the public health response to the pandemic should aim for and gives a few examples of the kinds of behavioral changes that should be implemented. To begin with, it should be clear that the proposal is a policy proposal. While I welcome the proposal as an excellent development and would view its adoption as a likely improvement over the current situation, I must nevertheless point out a few significant difficulties with this Declaration. The authors of the Declaration recommend policies of “Focused Protection” and have already received the support of tens of thousands of public health professionals, medical practitioners, and members of the general public. The proposal, introduced this past Sunday by 3 prominent epidemiologists and scientists at a summit sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, seems to offer a welcome alternative to current policies of blanket lockdowns. With the recently issued “ Great Barrington Declaration,” the anti-lockdown movement has received a shot in the arm.
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